Kwara Under Watch: No New Terrorist Group, But Old Threats Evolving


Recent fears about the emergence of a new terrorist group in Kwara State have been dispelled by credible security sources. Contrary to speculation, Mahmouda the figure at the center of these reports, is not the leader of a new organization but a seasoned Boko Haram commander expanding his operational footprint.

From Borno to Kaduna, then to Niger State, Mahmouda has methodically aligned himself with local criminal elements, including remnants of Darul Salam and active bandit groups. His current presence in the forests bordering Kwara suggests not the birth of a new insurgency, but the dangerous expansion of existing ones.

This situation once again puts a spotlight on the responsiveness of Nigeria’s security architecture. Earlier warnings by analysts like Zagazola Makama were dismissed by police authorities as baseless fear-mongering. Now, with insurgent activity confirmed in the area, the credibility of our internal security communication is under scrutiny.

What This Means for Government:

1. Early Warning vs. Denial Culture: The tendency of security agencies to deny threats instead of investigating them could lead to preventable escalations.


2. Coordination Gap: There is an urgent need for improved intelligence sharing between the military, police, and local security outfits.


3. Policy Shift Needed: Kwara is part of Nigeria’s North Central region, traditionally seen as relatively peaceful. Its shift into the insurgency map should trigger a proactive regional security framework.


4. Rural Security Strategy: Mahmouda’s strategy targets ungoverned forest spaces. Strengthening forest and border surveillance between Niger and Kwara is crucial.



Insight by Oppy Takeaway:

Kwara does not face a “new” threat—it faces a recycled one, taking advantage of gaps in security presence and inter-agency collaboration. The government must go beyond reactive measures and invest in a dynamic, mobile, and intelligence-driven counter-insurgency framework especially in regions previously considered safe.

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